Weekly Update February 27th

Crypto Rand
9 min readFeb 27, 2023

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (February 27th)

Decision time?

Bulls need to pull it back this week as we approach some key technical levels.

SPX and USD charts will be watched closely this week

Before we look at that, let’s just take a look at some crypto charts we did have some Sunday night moves.

Bitcoin Market Update

BTC — Despite the movement, this remains in super tricky territory here — The top of the larger TF range is being respected at around 25k. On the smaller TFs, we have come back into the range and trying to defend the mid.

Firmly in no trade territory here, if you reflect on the last week’s NL for the larger TF look. Bulls want to see 25k captured and flipped as support and that that the weekly 200MA. Without that downside risks remain.

Ethereum Market Update

ETH — I’m kinda 5050 here, can see the technical case for a move to 1800 or 1350 — So really wide views on where I see this one heading.

TOTAL 3 — So looking at the entire Altcoin market this chart is REALLY DIFFICULT again… looks ready to fall but I’ve been thinking that for a good solid week+, now, and it’s still holding. I think what we need to see here is a breakout on the RSI + Breakout above the trend line and flip it as support

(circled) — If we can get this then the overall health of the market starts to look a long better — or at least supports a further upside move to the 334 (top of the range) levels.

Now taking a look at two of the most important charts and the strong correlation we are seeing — USD / SPX

I’ve inversed the SPX (blue candles) and placed this above the USD chart to highlight the correlation the equity market peaked as the USD bottomed and while USD has seen an upside this has translated into equity market weakness. The good news for the bulls is USD is hitting overbought levels here in this rising wedge formation. If we can get a breakdown then bulls still have some hope. But if this makes a break to the upside you could be looking at 109 on the dollar and nasty equity market weakness.

SPX — Under the key 4000 level — currently backtesting the sloping trendline and the 200 MA — Bulls want to see the 4000 level recaptured — If we lose the 200MA here and the zone highlighted then the bulls are in really bad shape.

Quite a lot going on — Very tricky conditions with moves in and out of range/chop/pumps and dumps on a daily basis. My advice is to wait for the technical to resolve and then position. You lose nothing waiting on the sidelines to see if we can capture some key levels.

Continue to look for alt plays as we still see some isolated pops… Just play it tight.

Coinbase BASE

Last week, Coinbase announced the launch of their own Layer-2 blockchain called BASE. Coinbase is launching the testnet of its Ethereum layer-2 network, called Base. The network will initially be incubated inside Coinbase but aims to be fully decentralized in the future. Base will be powered through Optimism’s OP stack, joining as the stack’s second core contributor. The network’s code will be open-source, preserving the critical, global, permissionless nature of cryptocurrencies, according to Jesse Pollak, protocol lead at Coinbase. Base will not issue a token and will use ether as its native asset. Plans are in place to bring USDC onto the network eventually.

Sony Web3 Projects

Sony Group’s internet services division has partnered with Astar Network to offer a Web3 incubation program that will run from March to June this year. The program, hosted by Startale Labs, will select 10 to 15 Web3 projects from around the world and offer business and technology strategy sessions with global VC firms and Web3 companies. Participants will also have access to direct contacts with companies like Web3 Foundation and Alchemy. Sony is actively exploring opportunities in the Web3 space and the incubation program offers investment opportunities for promising projects. The demo day will be held in person at Sony Group’s headquarters in Tokyo during Japan Blockchain Week in mid-June.

Jump Crypto recovered $140M from Wormhole hacker

Chicago-based trading firm Jump Crypto has reportedly counter-exploited the hacker behind the Wormhole attack that took place in February 2022, recovering approximately 120,000 ETH, which was worth $325 million at the time. The funds were reportedly replaced by Jump Crypto, which was involved in the development of the Wormhole protocol, to make the community members whole and support Wormhole. A blockchain-based analysis by Blockworks Research revealed that Jump finally won the fight against the hacker and retrieved the stolen funds. The net return from the counter exploit was around $140 million after taking into account the repayment of open loans on the vault. Neither Jump nor Oasis, which was involved in the coordinated effort, have confirmed this.

Spotify NFT playlists

Spotify, the popular music streaming service, has launched a pilot program for NFT playlists that can only be unlocked by holders, catering to the Web3 communities. This new feature enables exclusive access to curated music playlists for specific members of NFT communities. Only a handful of NFT projects/communities have been selected for the trial, including gaming startup Overlord and Universal Music Group’s virtual band KINGSHIP. The playlist can only be accessed by Creepz NFT token holders or by Overlord and KINGSHIP Key Card NFT holders. The playlist includes popular tracks from well-known artists such as Queen, Missy Elliott, Snoop Dogg, and Led Zeppelin. This new feature offers a unique and exclusive music experience for NFT holders on Spotify.

Testnet Token Goerli ETH Market value

As if testing decentralized applications wasn’t difficult enough, developers on the Goerli testnet are now facing a new challenge. The limited supply of Goerli ETH has led some individuals to hoard the tokens, causing a liquid price market to emerge. In fact, one user recently sold 150,000 GoETH for over 30 ETH. But with the tokens meant to have no real-world value, these profits could now be subject to taxes. This issue has sparked ongoing discussions in the Ethereum community about how to ensure Goerli remains accessible to developers as a public good.

Choosing Your Timeframe

One of the most important decisions a trader makes is choosing the right time frame for their trades. Time frames can range from short-term to long-term, with each having its own advantages and disadvantages. However, what works for one trader may not work for another, as each individual has a unique personality and trading style. In this article, we’ll explore how to choose the best time frame for trading based on your personality, and provide tips and advice to help you make the right decision.

Understanding different time frames

Before we dive into how to choose the best time frame for trading, it’s important to understand the different options available. Mind that whatever timeframe you choose you will find the same market structure zooming in or zooming out, which gives you the opportunity to make a decision based only on your preferences.

Here are the three most common time frames for trading:

  • Short-term Trading: This time frame usually involves holding positions for a few hours or less. Day trading is an example of short-term trading. (scalping is the lowest short-term trading)
  • Mid-term Trading: This time frame involves holding positions for a few days to a few weeks.
  • Long-term Trading: This time frame consists in holding positions for weeks, months, or even years. (Investing would be the longest-term trading)

Your personality and the time frames

When it comes to choosing the best time frame for trading, your personality is an important factor to consider. Here are some tips to help you determine which time frame might be best for you based on your personality:

  • Risk Tolerance: If you have a high-risk tolerance, you may be more suited for short-term trading, as this time frame can involve more volatility and rapid changes. If you have a lower risk tolerance, you may be better suited for longer-term trading, as this can provide more stability and predictability.
  • Patience: If you have a lot of patience, you may be well-suited for longer-term trading, as this requires waiting for trends to develop and holding positions for extended periods. If you are more impatient, you may prefer shorter-term trading, where positions are opened and closed quickly.
  • Time Availability: If you have limited time available for trading, longer-term trading may be a better fit, as it requires less frequent monitoring. While shorter-term trading may be better for you, if you have more time available, as it requires constant monitoring and assessment. On the other hand scalping (short-term modality) could be suited for you if you have limited time available as you can open and close multiple positions every few minutes and then go on with your life.
  • Goals: Your trading goals can also help determine the best time frame for your trades. If you are looking for quick profits, short-term trading may be more appropriate. If you are looking for long-term growth, longer-term trading may be a better fit. Consider a balance of both as an option too, making quick profits and putting them in long-term positions would help your growth and reach goals faster.
  • Emotional Control: Different time frames can evoke different emotional responses in traders. Short-term trading can be more stressful and require quick decision-making, which may not be suitable for traders who have difficulty managing their emotions or admitting their wrongs. On the other hand, longer-term trading can be less emotionally taxing but may require more discipline to stay committed to the trade plan while on the other hand gives extra time to realise and accept a wrong analysis.

3 Tips for finding the Best Time Frame

Here are some additional tips to help you find the best time frame for your trading:

  • Experiment: If you’re not sure which time frame is best for you, experiment with different options to see which one you’re most comfortable with. This may involve starting with a small amount of capital and testing different time frames over a period of weeks or months.
  • Be Realistic: Don’t try to force yourself into a time frame that doesn’t match your personality or goals. Be honest with yourself about your strengths and weaknesses, and choose a time frame that you can realistically stick to.
  • Stay Flexible: Your preferred time frame may change over time as you gain experience and your trading style evolves. Stay flexible and be willing to adjust your approach as needed.

Conclusion

Choosing the best time frame for trading is a crucial decision that can have a significant impact on your success as a trader. By considering your personality, risk tolerance, patience, time availability, self-control and goals, you can determine which time frame is best for you. Remember to experiment, be realistic, and stay flexible as you refine your trading strategy over time.

Ultimately the faster you realise that trading is a game you play against yourself more than anything else, and you decide how often you are prepared to take up that inner fight, the better you will define the time frame that suits you more.

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Crypto Rand

Investor & Trader. CEO of Blockground Capital. Based between Andorra and Bangkok.