Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (April 17th)
Legacy market confusion but crypto and Alts get a pop!
First, let’s look at crypto and get a check on market health — As commented last week we had BTC DOM hitting our long-term range high and we rejected nicely off that level last week while BTC consolidated — This gave some relief for alts and we had a nice pop higher across various names.
Currently, we want to look at how we react off this 46.78 level (red line) — Ideally for alts to continue a strong upside rally we want to see DOM lose this level while BTC consolidates. This would indicate DOM has another leg lower. We are approaching major oversold levels on the 4h DOM chart so I do expect this range low level to hold… So a nice area to make take 25/30% profits across your Alt plays if you took advantage of this move last week.
ETH/BTC — Weekly — Had a really strong week last week and it looks like we have smashed through the mid of this range and some key resistance. I will be looking for this Mid-level to hold this week to lock in continued Alt upside. If we lose the level + we hold the level outlined on DOM then I think we could see alts reverse the move we have just seen so keep an eye on these charts this week.
When we look at the BTC and ETH charts individually we need to see ETH hold 2000 and BTC I want to see hold 28.8k (previous range high). Again ideal scenario is BTC holds these levels while DOM loses that key red level outlined above. What you DON’T want to see is the red level of DOM held, BTC loses 28.8k and DOM rebounds higher. That would cause some crypto market stress.
IMO BTC and ETH require some nice consolidation to work through the negative divergences. I remain open to all outcomes so watch the charts mentioned carefully and you should have a good handle on what’s going on this week.
Now looking at Legacy markets — And for me, this is where the confusion comes in and I’m finding it hard to read. For the entirety of this year, we have been CONSTANTLY flip-flopping between stagflation, recession and Inflation fears. One week you think you know what’s going to happen then the next week you’re back to square one.
Overall looking at legacy here I am STILL in the camp that we see another material leg to the downside and you might see ‘’largest short positioning since 2011’’ and think that’s a contrarian indicator and suggest markets go higher… Well, that might be so but when I also look at current market positioning like the VIX at 17’s! Retail is 94% long Amazon on IG, 64% Long AAPL, 94% long MSFT, 78% long TESLA, and 52% Long NVDA — I just don’t buy into this view and I actually think the markets are rather complacent here and risks are to the downside.
We rallied off the lows in March following the blow-up of SVB because people assumed blow-ups = rate cuts. Since then the Fed has stepped in, other major banks haven’t blown up and earnings for the major banks weren’t too bad.
The USD also weakened following this — So now this fear is out of the way does that mean no cuts, further tightening = USD up? NOTE USD has reclaimed a key level here and should be watched closely this week.
In summary, this is all disgustingly confusing…But I remain short BIG TECH and I remain overall bearish on LEGACY. Crypto I’ll just keep playing the levels until they no longer work, the information at the start of this report should allow you to weather all storms good and bad.
Ethereum Shapella Upgrade unlocks 18,000,000 ETH
The Ethereum blockchain has successfully integrated the Shapella upgrade, a combination of the Shanghai and Capella upgrades, marking a significant milestone for the Ethereum community. The upgrade allows users to unstake their ETH for the first time since December 2020, unlocking about 16% of ETH, or roughly 18 million ETH, for withdrawal. Although many investors anticipated a major sell-off following the unlock, the processing of unstaking requests is expected to take weeks or even months due to high demand. The price of ETH has remained unaffected after the upgrade, trading at $1,912 at press time with a market cap of $230 billion and a trading volume of over $11 billion.
Solana launches The Saga Phone
Solana’s Saga smartphone, designed specifically for Web3 applications and crypto self-custody, will be available for purchase on May 8, 2023. The Android device offers 512 GB of storage, a 6.67-inch OLED display, a 50MP and 12MP ultrawide dual-camera system, and a Seed Vault for secure storage of crypto assets. Solana’s Dapp Store, hosting 16 decentralized applications, covers NFTs, DAOs, staking, and more. Developed by OSOM and powered by the “Solana Mobile Stack,” the Saga phone aims to “modernize how people interact with their digital assets for enhanced usability and increased security.” The device has already gained significant attention in the blockchain community, marking a new era of blockchain-focused smartphones.
7,000 Metamask Users Targeted in data breach
MetaMask, a popular cryptocurrency wallet, has suffered a personal data breach affecting an estimated 7,000 of its users who contacted customer support between August 2021 and February 2023. Blockchain software firm ConsenSys, which operates MetaMask, reported the incident in a blog post and noted that the breach occurred through a third-party service provider. While personal information, such as email addresses, was accessed, users of MetaMask’s browser extension and mobile app were not impacted. ConsenSys has stopped the unauthorized access and has informed data protection authorities in Ireland and the UK, but warns that affected users may be targeted in future phishing scams.
Bitcoin over $30,000 for the first time in 6 months
Bitcoin had a great start to 2023, with its fourth-best quarter ever recorded, according to crypto-focused financial services firm NYDIG. While past performance is not indicative of future results, a positive first quarter has historically been a “good omen” for Bitcoin for the rest of the year, according to NYDIG. The first quarter of 2023 also saw Bitcoin outperform benchmark indexes across equities and commodities. Despite this, the outsized gains of Bitcoin’s best first quarters, such as 2011 and 2013, are highly “unlikely” to ever happen again. Nevertheless, recent performance appears to be correlated with macroeconomic developments in the US. The percentage of Bitcoin holders in unrealized profit also hit its highest point in almost a year, according to Glassnode.
Hong Kong is becoming more crypto-friendly
Hong Kong’s largest digital bank, ZA Bank, is planning to extend its services to crypto by allowing traders and investors to withdraw fiat currencies from exchanges. The bank will offer users of locally-licensed crypto exchanges the means to enter and exit the crypto market using Hong Kong dollars, Chinese yuan, or US dollars. The move comes as Hong Kong regulators will hold a forum with domestic and international crypto firms to re-cement the city’s identity as a crypto hub. Hong Kong’s financial chief has also announced intentions to boost Web3 industry adoption through proper regulation and development
Can colours affect my trading performance?
Are you curious about how the colours used in your chart layout can impact your trading performance? Truth is that the right colour scheme can enhance your trading experience and improve your ability to read and interpret charts.
In this article, we will discuss the impact of colours on your trading performance and how to choose the right colours for your chart layout.
The Psychological Impact of Colors on Trading Performance
Colours can have a significant impact on how traders perceive and interpret information presented on charts. In the end, we are emotional and our vision can affect our behaviour and perception of reality in an unconscious way. In standard charting red is typically considered a negative colour in technical analysis because it is often associated with bearish or downward price movements while green is considered a positive colour in technical analysis because it is associated with bullish or upward price movements by default.
The impact of colours on emotions has been widely studied and has shown that different colours can evoke different emotional responses. This means that colours can influence your mood and emotions, which can ultimately affect your trading performance.
Choosing the Right Color Scheme for Your Chart Layout
When choosing a colour scheme for your chart layout, it’s essential to consider the psychological impact of colours and how they can influence your own emotions. Here are ten colours and usually related emotions, it might help you choose the right colour scheme for your chart layout:
- Blue — Associated with trust, stability, and calmness.
- Red — Associated with excitement, danger, and urgency.
- Green — Associated with growth, harmony, and balance.
- Yellow — Associated with optimism, energy, and happiness.
- Orange — Associated with warmth, creativity, and enthusiasm.
- Purple — Associated with luxury, sophistication, and creativity.
- Black — Associated with power, elegance, and formality.
- White — Associated with purity, simplicity, and clarity.
- Gray — Associated with neutrality, balance, and practicality.
- Brown — Associated with stability, reliability, and comfort.
Remember that the right colour scheme can enhance your trading experience and improve your ability to read and interpret charts. So, when choosing a colour scheme for your chart layout, aim to use a clean and organized chart layout, avoiding messy displays that can make it difficult to distinguish important information. Additionally, choosing a colour scheme that is easy on the eyes and takes advantage of the psychological impact of colours to promote the desired emotional response can improve your ability to analyze market data and make informed trading decisions.
Beyond Looks and Design
Most traders will choose their layout thinking of making it look cool or appealing following the “marketing standard” rules. Now you know that even the choice of the colours of your charts can impact your decision-making.
Colours can influence traders’ moods and emotions, which can ultimately affect trading performance. For instance, traders who are feeling stressed or anxious may benefit from using calming colours like blue and green in their chart layout. These colours can help to reduce anxiety and promote a sense of relaxation, allowing those traders to make more rational and level-headed decisions. Alternatively, traders who are feeling tired or lethargic may benefit from using bright and vibrant colours like orange and yellow to promote a sense of energy and alertness.
As you can see this topic is highly subjective and there is no universal choice that would work for everyone, but it has been demonstrated that colours affect emotions, and trading is a game of controlling emotions, if you can use colour choice to your advantage your performance should be impacted.
You probably never thought of this, but this is a good occasion to consider the colours you use in your chart layout and how they might influence your emotions and mood. By choosing the right colour scheme, you could improve your ability to analyze market data and make better trading decisions.