🎯 SOL and TAO are Ready to Keep Pushing: We Discuss the Next Targets

Welcome to today’s market bulletin! We’ve gathered the most relevant trends and developments shaping the crypto and finance world, all in one place. Clear, concise, and focused, here’s what you need to know to stay on top of the markets this week. Let’s begin:

• Surfing the Market, with SOL and TAO.
• Don’t miss the news about ETH stablecoin supply hitting $166B and the Coinbase hacker buying ~$19M of ETH at ~$4.76K!
• Satlayer is under the spotlight.
• A short article about Does Time Really Matter?

Great SOL breakout on the local bull pennant we were tracking last week. Keeps showing strength towards the next targets:

TAO breached up the main falling wedge and it’s consolidating nicely. The next key test will come on the $400 resistance range. The setup continues looking amazing:

Ethereum Stablecoin Float Hits Record $166B, Cementing DeFi’s Settlement Layer

Ethereum’s total stablecoin supply climbed to an all-time high of $166B as of Saturday, up from $149.5B a month earlier, underscoring ETH’s role as the core settlement rail for on-chain finance. The expansion reflects sustained demand for dollar liquidity on Ethereum and adds fresh fuel for trading, lending, and payments across DeFi.

Highlights

• Pace of expansion: Data providers flagged a rapid recent build, with ~$5B added in a single week, roughly $1B per day, marking the fastest clip this year.
• Market share lead: Ethereum now commands about 57% of the entire stablecoin market, well ahead of Tron (~27%) and Solana (<4%).
• RWA tailwinds: Token Terminal and RWA trackers show record levels of tokenized assets alongside stables, including ~$2.4B in tokenized gold and >70% share of tokenized U.S. Treasurys on Ethereum.
• Liquidity flywheel: Rising stablecoin balances deepen DEX liquidity and collateral pools, reinforcing Ethereum’s use in perps, lending markets, and payments.

With dollar liquidity stacking on Ethereum, the network’s “economic base” looks stronger heading into Q4, supportive for activity, fees, and builder momentum. Watch whether the growth pace persists and how it translates into DeFi volumes and ETH demand for gas.

Coinbase Hacker Wallet Scoops $18.9M in ETH Above $4.7K

A wallet flagged by on-chain analysts as tied to the $300M Coinbase exploit bought 3,976 ETH (~$18.9M) as Ether pushed through $4,700. The buys, executed around $4,756 per ETH, extend a months-long pattern of activity from the address and rekindle scrutiny of how stolen funds move through the market. The latest accumulation used stablecoins to build the position in multiple tranches.

Highlights

• Stablecoin funding: The wallet consolidated ~$18.91M in DAI before swapping into ETH, suggesting pre-planned execution and liquidity management.
• Average fill price: On-chain traces show an ~$4,756 average entry, indicating a buy-the-breakout strategy as ETH cleared resistance.
• Address under watch: Trackers have monitored this wallet for months following the $300M Coinbase user exploit linked to social engineering.
• Pattern of re-entries: The address has previously added ETH on strength, reinforcing a tactic of deploying large stablecoin blocks into rallies.
• Market signal: High-profile on-chain buys during breakouts can amplify sentiment and volatility around key price levels. (Inference from reported activity.)
  Whether this proves prescient or risky depends on ETH holding above the breakout zone. For now, the transaction spotlights how visible, on-chain moves by infamous wallets can shape narrative and near-term flow, especially when they lean into momentum.

Project Research: SATLAYER (SLAY)

The Origins:

SatLayer is an infrastructure protocol that aims to make Bitcoin a security and economic layer for other blockchains and services. The project frames itself as an “economic layer on Bitcoin,” enabling projects to leverage Bitcoin’s finality and security by restaking BTC or bitcoin-backed LSTs (liquid staking tokens) into shared vaults.

SatLayer launched publicly in 2024 and promotes a phased rollout that begins with deposit/reward campaigns and moves toward operator onboarding and a service marketplace.

The Operative:

SatLayer’s design focuses on three core ideas: security anchoring to Bitcoin, pooled restaking, and a coordination layer for operators (BVS; Bitcoin Validated Services).

1. Restake vaults and rewards. Users deposit BTC or compatible LSTs into SatLayer vaults to earn protocol rewards and campaign bonuses (Sats² campaigns). Deposits are used to back services and generate yield that the protocol distributes to stakers.
2. Operator network (BVS). SatLayer will permit operators and service providers to join a decentralized operator set that validates and secure services (for example, rollups, L1s, bridges, or data availability layers). Operators leverage restaked BTC as economic security and run services that other projects can rely upon.
3. Developer tooling and primitives. The stack includes Cube (an LST / wrapper primitive), SDKs, and developer docs to help projects integrate SatLayer security. The protocol emphasizes audited contracts, a bug-bounty program, and onchain coordination primitives.

The project development has a phased roadmap: Phase I (deposits / staking campaigns) is live. Phase II will open operator and BVS onboarding. Phase III will expand available services and broader integrations.

Summary & Competitors

SatLayer raised $8.0 million in a pre-seed round (Aug 22, 2024) with participation from investors including Hack VC (lead), Castle Island Ventures, OKX Ventures, CMS Holdings, Mirana Ventures, Amber Group and others. The otken of the project is $SLAY with a total supply of 2.10 billion. It’s used for staking/reward distribution in deposit campaigns, for economic alignment with operators, and as part of incentive programs SatLayer sits in a developing niche that combines Bitcoin-based security primitives, liquid restaking, and DePIN-style operator networks.

Related or adjacent projects that could be seen as competitors include:

• Babylon: BTC restaking protocol securing PoS chains in a non-custodial way.
• Pell Network: Aggregates BTC and LSTs into a unified ledger for AVS security.
• Bedrock: Liquid restaking platform for BTC and ETH integrated with Babylon.
• Symbiotic: Modular protocol enabling flexible restaking with ERC-20 and more.
• OrangeLayer: Extends Bitcoin security to the Ethereum ecosystem through BPS.

Protocols that extend Bitcoin’s security to other systems through restaking and operator coordination are contributing to a broader trend: anchoring application-layer trust to Bitcoin finality. Key sector questions include how restaking impacts BTC security assumptions, how operator economics scale, and whether these models enable sustainable onchain services (payments, DA, L1 security) without introducing concentrated risks. Monitoring audits, operator decentralization, and cross-project integrations will be essential to assess the practical impact of this emerging category.

Does Time Really Matter?

One of the most debated topics in trading is time, how long it takes for a trading idea to play out. If it drags on too long, it carries an opportunity cost. But is time really that relevant when planning a trade, or when deciding whether to abandon it if it doesn’t hit the target within your expected window? Let’s take a closer look.

In a setup based on TA, we use price to identify patterns and structures that help us project future moves, in other words, we set price targets. But the question many ask is: how long will it take to reach that target?

Some traders don’t consider time at all, while others give it too much weight. In my opinion and experience, both approaches miss the mark.

• Ignoring time completely can lead us into an opportunity-cost trap. For example, if an asset consolidates sideways for years, it may not hit our SL, but it’s also tying up capital without moving higher.
• On the flip side, striving for pinpoint precision in both price and time can be just as dangerous. Markets don’t move in a straight line, and they’re even less predictable when it comes to timing.

Different Types of Setups

Some setups are based on structures or chart patterns, where it’s helpful to consider proportionality. For instance, if a flag took three months to form its pole, once the breakout occurs, you can expect the target to be reached within a similar timeframe, but not in three days.

In longer-term setups based on market cycles, something similar happens: bear cycles often last half or one-third as long as the bull phases that follow.

Price Is King

From my experience, the best analysis focuses on price as the core of any setup, for several reasons:

• It improves objectivity, the chart dictates the signals, not the calendar.
• It enables clearer risk and capital management, as entry, exit, and target levels are well-defined.
• It helps avoid premature exits driven by anxiety.

Risks of This Approach

If you completely ignore time, you risk staying stuck in a poor trade for far too long, as mentioned above. On the other hand, if your targets are reached very quickly, you face a dilemma: should you let the trade run further, considering the proportionality of the pattern, or simply exit at your target? The answer depends on each trader’s style.

Conclusion

Your setup should be the foundation of your strategy, and price should be its central element. Time can be part of the equation, but as a secondary factor, since it rarely plays out exactly as planned (and usually takes longer than expected).

Of course, every trader has their own style and strategy. But would you really exit a strong trend just because the timeframe you estimated at entry has expired, even if the price hasn’t yet reached your target? The truth is that price and trend, not time, should drive your decisions.

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