Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (July 24th)
Last week’s action was pretty muted for crypto as we continued to bounce around in the range. Legacy had some fireworks with technology indexes down but we did see value stocks outside of the tech hype getting a slight bid and that helped the SPX end the week green.
This week should be interesting as we have a whole load of earnings, FOMC and CORE PCE so buckle up.
This week’s post is going to be one for the bears as I have several things to highlight.
SPX — Looking at the weekly chart I find it very convenient we closed up just below the 78 fib retracement mark. Noteworthy for sure.
NQ — I thought this chart here pairs very well with a post I have seen this morning on Twitter highlighting the headlines before major crashes in 07, 2000s and 1990. Just recently we’ve had so many headlines pointing towards a ‘’soft landing’’ ‘’recession avoided’’ and with sentiment hitting euphoric levels I can’t help but to look at all the evidence, data and past market history and worry.
Another chart: This is loan delinquencies (defaults or late payments) — As you can see here were rising to unhealthy levels and provides further evidence that things aren’t all rosy under the hood.
We also have some USD problems to contend with here. Last week USD broke the range low and then managed to get back into range. Anything could still happen here but 100% you want to keep an eye on how this behaves this week. As you can see against the QQQ index (tech) we’re very dependent on the dollar playing ball for equities to move higher.
AI Hype under threat? Another notable movement last week is AAPL — we had some AI hype news from AAPL last week and it just didn’t hit like it has been doing with AAPL printing a pretty grim weekly close.
Finally looking at ETH here — The chart remains simple. ETH is only a bid once we can break the range to the upside and so far all we’ve done is reject off the top of the range so 1450 remains fully in play unless we can get that breakout. I remain unhappy about ETH demand on chain… it’s still very quiet so for me, I’m leaning more towards the downside for ETH.
Elon posts a Scooby-doo meme and Dogecoin pumps $320M because of it
Elon Musk’s love for memes and trolling on his Twitter platform once again played its part in pumping the markets on Wednesday last week. After sharing a playful Scooby-Doo meme on Twitter, Dogecoin’s value surged an incredible
$320 million in just 15 minutes. This isn’t the first time Musk’s tweets have wielded such power, previously generating hundreds of millions for the coin with a single post of his dog and a change in Twitter’s logo, and infamously appearing on Saturday Night Live at the Dogecoin top. Traders now closely monitor his every word, while others have even filed a lawsuit alleging market manipulation. In the realm of cryptocurrencies, it seems that memes truly have the ability to move markets.
Ripple confident US Banks will explore XRP for cross-border payments
Following the ruling last week which declared XRP was NOT a security — a lot of talk around the future of the project is beginning to heat up. This decision opens up new possibilities for Ripple, the company behind the cryptocurrency, as it now expects U.S. banks and financial institutions to embrace XRP for cross-border payments. Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, expressed optimism about initiating discussions with American financial institutions to adopt its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) product, which leverages XRP to facilitate near-instantaneous money movement across borders. It is worth mentioning, these conversations are being primarily discussed by Ripple themselves… so take them with a pinch of salt. However, the ruling was definitely positive and made them more attractive to institutional entities.
SEC Chair, Gary Gensler seeks $2.4B to fight misconduct in cryptocurrency markets
Give it a rest Gary… you have taken a lot of losses recently when it comes to crypto. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is gearing up to tackle misconduct in the crypto markets with a substantial $2.4 billion budget. In a recent speech in front of US officials, Gensler made the case for more resources to be allocated to tackle the ‘wild west’ of cryptocurrencies. Gensler described crypto as being rife with noncompliance and speculation, which may have some merit but the SEC has repeatedly proven their ineptitude in dealing with it. Despite facing recent setbacks, including the Ripple lawsuit, the SEC seems to be remaining committed to enforcing crypto regulations and is even reviewing BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF application
Do Kwon welcome back to Terra?
Unbelievably Terra’s new interim CEO, Chris Amani, is leaving the door open for the return of Do Kwon, despite the challenges ahead of revitalizing the company after the failure of stablecoin Terra (UST). Not sure who this guy’s PR manager is but Amani assured that Kwon is welcome back at any time, emphasizing the community’s resilience and determination to overcome the hurdles they faced since the depeg. This was discussed on a Twitter spaces event last week, much to the amazement of some participants with Amani saying “Of course he’s welcome back, that’s not even a question. It could be 10 years from now.”
10 Epic Trading Principles
Like any endeavour, trading is a journey filled with challenges and opportunities. We have seen multiple times already that’s a path that demands dedication, resilience and a commitment to continuous growth. As you embark on this exhilarating journey of trading mastery, let’s explore the key concepts that form the bedrock of any successful trading setup. Embrace these 10 principles, and you will be well on your way to confronting the markets with confidence and determination.
The Courage to Take the First Step:
Every journey begins with a single step. The world of trading may seem daunting at first, but remember that every successful trader was once a novice. Have the courage to take that first step, for within it lies the promise of new possibilities and boundless potential.
Defining Your Path with Entry and Exit Criteria:
Like a navigator charting a course, define your trading setup with clarity and precision. Establish well-defined entry and exit criteria for each trade, giving yourself a roadmap to navigate the markets confidently. Let your setups be anchored in sound technical analysis or any strategy that resonates with your trading style.
Embrace the Shield of Risk Management:
In the battlefield of trading, risk management serves as your most vital shield. Shield your trading capital by determining the amount you are willing to risk on each trade. Calculate your position sizes judiciously to ensure that you can weather storms while preserving your capital for future battles.
The Art of Market Analysis:
To make informed decisions, the art of market analysis is your compass. Embark on a journey of deciphering both fundamental and technical analysis, enabling you to grasp the underlying market forces and identify potential entry and exit points. Don’t forget the macro landscape.
Harnessing the Power of Trend Identification:
As the winds of the market change, let the power of trend identification be your guiding star. Learn to recognise trends — whether it be a bullish uptrend, a bearish downtrend, or a sideways range. Align your trades with the prevailing trend to increase your chances of sailing towards profit.
Building the Foundation of a Trading Plan:
In the realm of trading, a well-structured trading plan is your fortress of clarity. Forge a comprehensive plan that outlines your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and goals. With a plan as your foundation, you’ll stand strong against the turbulent tides of emotion-driven decisions.
Strength in Backtesting and Learning:
To sharpen your skills, revisit the lessons of the past. Backtest your setups on historical data to assess their effectiveness. Learn from both successes and setbacks, for every trade presents an opportunity to grow wiser and more adept.
Cultivating the Mind of a Master Trader:
The battlefield of trading is as much mental as it is technical. Cultivate the mindset of a master trader — one of discipline, patience, and resilience. Overcome fear and greed, and embrace the art of staying composed amidst market storms.
The Power of Diversification:
In the realm of risk, diversification stands as your bastion of defence. Spread your trades across different assets or instruments, dispersing risk and allowing for potential wins to shine through the challenges.
Adapting to the Ever-Changing Terrain:
The markets, like the shifting tides, are never constant. Embrace adaptability as your ally. Be open to adjusting your bias to suit changing market conditions. Flexibility is the mark of a seasoned trader, ever-ready to embrace new opportunities.
Those might sound like epic tasks to achieve, but you know they are achievable already, all you need is some time and perseverance. Just like Odysseus did in his adventure, trying to return to his home facing many problems he must solve in order to return home. He must escape the Cyclops’ cave, figure out a way to get past the sirens and dodge the dangerous sea monsters. His determination will help him get back home to see his wife Penelope and return to rule Ithaca.
Embrace the unknown, seize the opportunities, and become a trailblazer on your trading odyssey. May your journey be marked with triumphs and learning, for every step forward brings you closer to the pinnacle of your financial goals.